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Entrepreneurship & Business

viral marketingmathematicsgrowth rateuser acquisitionnetwork effects

The mathematics of viral marketing

Alex Bäcker

1 min read

Abstract

Successful viral marketing hinges on a forwarding rate exceeding 1, meaning each user ideally brings more than one new user. This can be achieved by having all users tell at least one friend, or more commonly, by having a fraction of users (1/Nth) tell N or more people. Consequently, a smaller group of highly engaged users can be as effective as a larger group of moderately satisfied users.

At the risk of stating the obvious, successful viral marketing is one whose average forwarding rate exceeds 1, i.e. in which on average, every person who uses the product or service gets more than 1 other person to use it. This can be achieved by getting all users to tell 1 or more friends, or more frequently, by getting at least 1/Nth of the users to tell N or more people. In other words, a small base of passionate fans can do just as much as a large base of mildly pleased users.

Cite This Work

Bäcker, Alex: The mathematics of viral marketing. alexbacker.com/w/the-mathematics-of-viral-marketing. Originally published at http://alexbacker.pbworks.com/The+mathematics+of+viral+marketing.